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Nobody alive has noticed a race just like the 2024 presidential election. For months, if no longer years, many of us have anticipated a reprise of the 2020 election, a matchup between the sitting president and a former president.
However that hasn’t avoided a crowded fundamental. At the GOP aspect, greater than a dozen applicants are ostensibly vying for the nomination. Donald Trump’s lead seems prohibitive, however alternatively, no candidate has ever received his celebration’s nomination whilst going through 4 (up to now) separate criminal indictments. (However, no person has ever misplaced his celebration’s nomination whilst going through 4 separate criminal indictments both.) Ron DeSantis has no longer budged from his place because the main challenger to Trump, however his give a boost to has weakened, encouraging a big box of Republicans who’re hoping for a fortunate smash, a Trump cave in, a VP nomination, or possibly only a few a laugh go back and forth and a cable-news contract down the street.
At the different aspect, Democratic hesitations a couple of moment Biden time period have both receded or dissolved into resignation that he’s working. However his age and the overall lukewarm feeling amongst some electorate has ensured {that a} decent-size shadow box nonetheless exists, simply ready in case Biden bows out for some explanation why. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may be working, ostensibly as a Democrat, however whilst using Republican specialists and espousing reasonably right-wing perspectives. Even so, he has hit double digits in some polls.
In the back of all this, the opportunity of a significant third-party bid, led through both the crowd No Labels or every other candidate, continues to linger. It provides as much as a race this is easy at the floor however unusually complicated slightly below it. This information to the applicants—who’s in, who’s out, and who’s someplace in between—serves as a street map to navigate that. It’s going to be up to date because the crusade develops, so take a look at in often.
REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump
Who’s he?
him and you’re keen on him. Or hate him. Most probably no longer a lot in between.
Is he working?
Sure. Trump introduced his bid to go back to the White Space at Mar-a-Lago in November 2022.
Why does he wish to run?
Revenge, boredom, competition, worry of prosecution, long-standing mental hang-ups.
Who needs him to run?
A large tranche of the GOP continues to be all in on Trump, however it’s somewhat exhausting to inform how giant. Polling presentations that his give a boost to amongst Republicans is in every single place, however he’s obviously no longer a prohibitive front-runner.
Can he win the nomination?
Sure, however previous effects are not any ensure of long run luck.
What else do we all know?
Greater than we might be able to wish to.
Ron DeSantis
Who’s he?
The second one-term governor of Florida, DeSantis used to be in the past a U.S. consultant.
Is he working?
Sure. He introduced his run in a trainwreck of an look with Elon Musk on Twitter Areas on Would possibly 24.
Why does he wish to run?
DeSantis gives the chance of a synthesis of Trump-style tradition warfare and bullying and the conservative politics of the early-2010s Republican Celebration.
Who needs him to run?
From the appearance of his crusade, DeSantis offered the chance of a candidate with Trump’s insurance policies however no Trump. However his fading polling means that no longer many Republicans have an interest.
Can he win the nomination?
He doesn’t appear to be the Trump-toppler as of late that he did a number of months in the past, however it’s imaginable.
Nikki Haley
Who’s she?
Haley, the daughter of immigrants, used to be governor of South Carolina after which ambassador to the United International locations underneath Trump.
Is she working?
Sure. She introduced her crusade on February 14, announcing, “Time for a brand new technology.”
Why does she wish to run?
Haley has attempted to influence a trail that distances herself from Trump—declaring his unpopularity—with out overtly attacking him. She will also be the main foreign-policy hawk within the box.
Who needs her to run?
Haley has lagged in the back of the primary tier of applicants, however her robust efficiency within the first debate may assist her.
Can she win the nomination?
Doubtful.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Who’s he?
A 38-year-old biotech millionaire with a glowing résumé (Harvard, then Yale Legislation, the place he become pals with Senator J. D. Vance), Ramaswamy has not too long ago develop into distinguished as a crusader towards “wokeism” and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) making an investment.
Is he working?
Sure. He introduced his crusade on February 21.
Why does he wish to run?
“We’re in the course of a countrywide identification disaster,” Ramaswamy mentioned in a somewhat-hectoring release video. “Religion, patriotism, and tough paintings have disappeared, handiest to get replaced through new secular religions like COVIDism, climatism, and gender ideology.”
Who needs him to run?
Ramaswamy has come from just about nowhere to ballot strangely neatly—in nationwide polls, he’s these days 0.33 (if distantly so) in the back of Trump and DeSantis, and he ruled the primary debate.
Can he win the nomination?
Most probably no longer. Ramaswamy now not turns out like an insignificant interest, however his slick shtick and questionable pronouncements will stay a drag on him.
Asa Hutchinson
Who’s he?
Hutchinson, the previously longtime member of Congress, simply completed a stint as governor of Arkansas.
Is he working?
Sure. Hutchinson introduced on April 2 that he’s working. It could were funnier to announce an afternoon previous, regardless that.
Why does he wish to run?
At one time, Hutchinson used to be a right-wing Republican—he used to be some of the managers of Invoice Clinton’s impeachment—however because the celebration has modified, he reveals himself nearer to the middle. He’s been very vital of Trump, announcing that Trump disqualified himself along with his makes an attempt to scouse borrow the 2020 election. Hutchinson may be distinctive within the box for having known as on Trump to drop out over his indictment in New York.
Who needs him to run?
Outdated-school, very conservative Republicans who additionally loathe Trump.
Can he win the nomination?
Not going.
Tim Scott
Who’s he?
A South Carolinian, Scott is the one Black Republican senator.
Is he working?
Sure. He introduced his crusade in North Charleston, South Carolina, on Would possibly 22.
Why does he wish to run?
In contrast to one of the crucial others in this record, Scott doesn’t telegraph his ambition moderately so evidently, however he’s constructed a file as a forged Republican. He used to be aligned with Trump, however by no means sycophantically hooked up.
Who needs him to run?
Scott’s Senate colleagues adore him. John Thune of South Dakota, the Senate minority whip, is his first highish-profile endorsement. As DeSantis stumbles, he’s gotten some consideration as a imaginable likable Trump selection.
Can he win the nomination?
Scott is solidly in the second one tier; he’s ceaselessly mentioned to be at the verge of breaking out however by no means moderately there.
Mike Pence
Who’s he?
The previous vice chairman, he additionally served because the governor of Indiana and a U.S. consultant.
Is he working?
Sure. He officially introduced his crusade on June 7 with a video and an match in Iowa.
Why does he wish to run?
Pence has lengthy harbored White Space desires, and he has a powerful conservative-Christian political time table. His release video is heavy on clichés and lightweight on specifics past promising a kinder face for the Trump time table.
Who needs him to run?
Conservative Christians, rabbit fans, however no longer very many of us total.
Can he win the nomination?
It’s exhausting to look it taking place.
Chris Christie
Who’s he?
What a adventure this man has had, from U.S. lawyer to revered governor of New Jersey to traffic-jam laughingstock to Trump sidekick to Trump critic. Whew.
Is he working?
Sure. He introduced his crusade on June 6 in New Hampshire.
Why does he wish to run?
Any person who runs for president as soon as and loses needs to run once more—particularly if he thinks the man who beat him is an fool, as Christie obviously thinks about Trump. Additionally, he turns out agitated to look different Republicans seeking to run with out criticizing Trump.
Who needs him to run?
Trump-skeptical donors, liberal pundits.
Can he win the nomination?
Extremely unsure.
Doug Burgum
Who’s he?
Do you even be aware of politics? Nah, simply kidding. A self-made instrument billionaire, Burgum’s serving his moment time period because the governor of North Dakota.
Is he working?
It seems that! He officially
introduced his crusade on June 7 in Fargo.
Why does he wish to run?
It’s difficult to inform. His campaign-announcement video focuses such a lot on North Dakota that it sort of feels extra like a reelection push. He advised a state newspaper that he thinks the “silent majority” of American citizens needs applicants who aren’t at the extremes. (A rich outsider concentrated on the silent majority? The place have we heard that earlier than?) He additionally truly needs extra home oil manufacturing.
Who needs him to run?
A lot of people anticipated a governor from the Dakotas to be a candidate in 2024, however they have been taking a look at Kristi Noem of South Dakota. Burgum could be very in style at house—he received greater than three-quarters of the vote in 2020—however that also quantities to fewer folks than the inhabitants of Toledo, Ohio.
Can he win the nomination?
“There’s a price to being underestimated always,” he has mentioned. “That’s a aggressive benefit.” But it surely’s even higher to have an opportunity, which he doesn’t.
What else do we all know?
He’s giving folks $20 reward playing cards in go back for donating to his crusade.
Will Hurd
Who’s he?
A former CIA officer, Hurd served 3 phrases within the Space representing a San Antonio–space district.
Is he working?
Sure. Hurd introduced his crusade on June 22.
Why does he wish to run?
Hurd says he has “common-sense” concepts and he’s “pissed” that elected officers are dividing American citizens. He’s additionally been an outspoken Trump critic.
Who needs him to run?
As a reasonable, youngish Black Republican and anyone who cares about protection, he’s such a candidate whom the celebration status quo perceived to need after the now-discarded 2012 GOP post-mortem.
Can he win the nomination?
No.
Francis Suarez
Who’s he?
Suarez is the preferred second-term mayor of Miami and the president of the U.S. Convention of Mayors.
Is he working?
Sure. He kicked off his crusade on June 15.
Why does he wish to run?
Suarez touts his adolescence—he’s 45—and mentioned in October 2022, “I’m anyone who believes in a favorable aspirational message. I’m anyone who has a monitor file of luck and a components for luck.” He’s additionally anyone who voted towards the Republican Ron DeSantis within the 2018 governor’s race and didn’t vote for Trump in 2020.
Who needs him to run?
Is there truly room for some other moderate-ish Republican within the race? Suarez studies that Trump mentioned he used to be the “most up to date flesh presser in The us after him,” however the former president is himself working, and with DeSantis a presumptive candidate, Suarez is an underdog in his house state.
Can he win the nomination?
Suarez’s handiest actual hope used to be making the primary debate after which having a super evening. However he didn’t make the primary debate.
Larry Hogan
Who’s he?
Hogan left administrative center this yr after serving two phrases as governor of Maryland.
Is he working?
No. Hogan dominated himself out on March 5, announcing he used to be nervous that too massive a box would assist Trump win the nomination another time, however he’s rumored as a possible No Labels candidate.
Why did he wish to run?
Hogan argued that his enjoy of governing an excessively blue state as a Republican is a fashion: “We’ve been truly a success outdoor of Washington, the place the entirety seems to be damaged and not anything however divisiveness and disorder.” He’s additionally a vocal critic of Trump.
Who sought after him to run?
Reasonable, business-friendly “By no means Trump” Republicans love Hogan.
May just he have received the nomination?
No.
Chris Sununu
Who’s he?
The governor of New Hampshire, he’s the little brother of former Senator John E. Sununu and the son of former White Space Leader of Personnel John H. Sununu.
Is he working?
No. On June 5, after weighing a crusade, he introduced he would no longer run. Caution concerning the risks of a Trump reprise, he mentioned, “Each candidate wishes to grasp the duty of having out and getting out briefly if it’s no longer operating.” Issues for taking his personal recommendation!
Why did he wish to run?
Sununu turns out disgusted through numerous Washington politics and noticed his luck in New Hampshire, a purple-blue state, as a fashion for small-government conservatism. He’s additionally a distinguished Trump critic.
Who sought after him to run?
Trump-skeptical Republicans, old-school conservatives.
May just he have received the nomination?
No.
Mike Pompeo
Who’s he?
Pompeo, a former member of Congress, led the CIA and used to be secretary of state underneath Trump.
Is he working?
No. On April 14, Pompeo introduced he wasn’t working. “This isn’t that point or that second for me to hunt elected administrative center once more,” he mentioned.
Why did he wish to run?
Pompeo has at all times been bold, and he turns out to assume he can mix MAGA proximity with a hawkish foreign-policy way.
Who sought after him to run?
That’s no longer totally transparent.
May just he have received the nomination?
Possibly, however more than likely no longer.
Glenn Youngkin
Who’s he?
Youngkin, the previous CEO of the private-equity Carlyle Workforce, used to be elected governor of Virginia in 2021.
Is he working?
Most probably no longer. He mentioned on Would possibly 1 that he wasn’t working “this yr.” However he appears to be rethinking that as Ron DeSantis’s crusade sputters.
Why does he wish to run?
Youngkin is a little of a cipher; he ran in large part on schooling problems, and has sought to tighten abortion regulations in Virginia, up to now to no avail.
Who needs him to run?
Rupert Murdoch, reportedly.
Can he win the nomination?
By no means if he isn’t working.
Mike Rogers
Who’s he?
Rogers is a congressman from Alabam—wait, no, sorry, that’s the different Consultant Mike Rogers. This one is from Michigan and retired in 2015. He used to be in the past an FBI agent and used to be head of the Intelligence Committee whilst on Capitol Hill.
Is he working?
He is considering it and has shaped a gaggle with the suitably obscure title “Lead The us,” however he’s been quiet for lengthy sufficient that we will be able to think no, a minimum of for sensible functions.
Why does he wish to run?
He laid out some unassailably vast concepts for a crusade in an interview with Fox Information, together with a focal point on innovation and civic schooling, however it’s exhausting to inform what precisely the objective is right here. “This isn’t an arrogance venture for me,” he added, which, k, certain.
Who needs him to run?
“I believe the Trump, Trump-lite lane is lovely crowded,” he advised Fox. “The lane that’s not speaking about Trump, this is speaking about answers and the best way ahead and what the actual demanding situations we are facing—I simply don’t to find numerous folks in that lane.” Which, once more, k?
Can he win the nomination?
Nope.
Larry Elder
Who’s he?
An established conservative radio host and columnist, he ran as a Republican within the unsuccessful 2021 try to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Is he working?
Allegedly, sure. He introduced his crusade on Tucker Carlson’s Fox Information display on April 20. He’s slightly been heard from since.
Why does he wish to run?
Satisfied you requested! “The us is in decline, however this decline isn’t inevitable,” he tweeted. “We will input a brand new American Golden Age, however we will have to make a choice a pacesetter who can convey us there. That’s why I’m working for President.” We don’t have any thought what that implies both.
Who needs him to run?
Unimaginable to mention at this degree, however deep-blue California is a difficult launching pad for any conservative, particularly an unseasoned candidate. This recall crusade additionally dredged up quite a lot of unflattering knowledge about his previous.
Can he win the nomination?
Having overlooked out at the first debate, any hope Elder had is long gone.
Rick Perry
Who’s he?
Perry used to be a three-term governor of Texas earlier than serving as power secretary underneath Donald Trump. He’s additionally run for president thrice: in 2012, 2016, and … I disregard the 0.33 one. Oops.
Is he working?
Oh, correct! The 0.33 one is 2024, possibly. He advised CNN in Would possibly that he’s taking into consideration a run. Not anything’s been heard since.
Why does he wish to run?
He didn’t say, however he’s struggled to articulate a lot of a compelling case to Republican electorate past the truth that he’s from Texas, he appears to be like excellent in a swimsuit, and he needs to be president, gosh darn it.
Who needs him to run?
Most probably no person. As Mike Pompeo already came upon, there’s no longer a lot of a marketplace for a run-of-the-mill former Trump Cupboard member in the main—particularly person who had any such forgettable flip as secretary, most commonly remembered for being dragged peripherally into each the primary Trump impeachment and election subversion.
Can he win the nomination?
The 0.33 time would no longer be a appeal.
Rick Scott
Who’s he?
Earlier than his present gig as a U.S. senator from Florida, Scott used to be governor and leader govt of a health-care corporate that dedicated huge Medicare fraud.
Is he working?
The New York Occasions says he’s taking into consideration it, regardless that an aide mentioned Scott is working for reelection to the Senate. He’d be the fourth Floridian within the race.
Why does he wish to run?
A Scott crusade would carry a captivating query: What for those who took Trump’s pose and beliefs, however got rid of all of the air of secrecy and, as an alternative of promising to offer protection to in style entitlement techniques, aimed to demolish them?
Who needs him to run?
Now not Mitch McConnell.
Can he win the nomination?
lol
DEMOCRATS
Joe Biden
Who’s he?
After many years of making an attempt, Biden is the president of america.
Is he working?
Sure. Biden officially introduced his run on April 25.
Why does he wish to run?
Biden’s slogan is it sounds as if “Let’s end the activity.” He targeted his release video at the theme of freedom, however underlying all of that is his obvious trust that he is also the one one who can defeat Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
Who needs him to run?
There’s the catch. Some distinguished Democrats give a boost to his bid for a moment time period, however electorate have persistently advised pollsters that they don’t need him to run once more.
Can he win the nomination?
Barring unexpected disaster, sure. No incumbent president has misplaced the nomination within the trendy technology, and Biden has driven via adjustments to the Democratic-primary procedure that make him an much more prohibitive favourite.
What else do we all know?
Biden is already the oldest individual to be elected president and to function president, so a moment time period would set extra information.
Dean Phillips
Who’s he?
Phillips, a mildly unorthodox and engaging determine, is a Minnesota reasonable serving his 0.33 time period within the Space.
Is he working?
Most probably no longer. In an August 21 interview, he mentioned he used to be not going to run, however would inspire different Democrats to take action. He had mentioned in July that he used to be taking into consideration it.
Why does he wish to run?
Phillips, who at 54 passes for younger in politics, has been publicly vital of superannuated Democrats sticking round too lengthy, and he says Biden is too previous to run once more.
Who needs him to run?
Even if it’s true that many Democrats assume Biden is simply too previous, that doesn’t imply they’re prepared to do anything else about it—or that Phillips is the person they wish to substitute him. Even if Phillips claims he has “been crushed with outreach and encouragement,” this appears to be like extra like a messaging transfer than a significant dash nowadays.
Can he win the nomination?
Now not in 2024.
What else do we all know?
His grandmother used to be “Expensive Abby.”
Kamala Harris
Who’s she?
Harris is the vice chairman of america.
Is she working?
No, but when Biden have been to bow out, she’d be the rapid favourite.
Why does she wish to run?
One drawback together with her 2020 presidential crusade used to be the loss of a transparent solution to this query. In all probability working at the Biden-Harris legacy would assist fill within the clean.
Who needs her to run?
Some Democrats are occupied with the chance of nominating a girl of colour, however in most cases Harris’s struggles as a candidate and in defining a job for herself (within the admittedly inconceivable place of VP) have led to anxiousness about her as a standard-bearer.
Can she win the nomination?
Now not at this time.
Pete Buttigieg
Who’s he?
Mayor Pete is Secretary Pete now, overseeing the Division of Transportation.
Is he working?
No, however he would even be a most likely candidate if Biden stepped away.
Why does he wish to run?
Simply as he used to be 4 years in the past, Buttigieg is a tender, bold flesh presser with a reasonable, technocratic imaginative and prescient of presidency.
Who needs him to run?
Buttigieg’s fanatics are passionate, and Biden confirmed that moderates stay a power within the celebration.
Can he win the nomination?
Now not at this second.
Bernie Sanders
Who’s he?
The senator from Vermont is changeless, ageless, ever the similar.
Is he working?
No, but when Biden dropped out, it’s exhausting to imagine he wouldn’t significantly imagine some other cross. A most sensible adviser even says so.
Why does he wish to run?
Sanders nonetheless needs to tax billionaires, stage the industrial enjoying box, and push a left-wing platform.
Who needs him to run?
Sanders continues to have the robust give a boost to of a big portion of the Democratic citizens, particularly more youthful electorate.
Can he win the nomination?
Two consecutive tries have proven that he’s bold, however can’t shut. Possibly the 0.33 time’s the appeal?
Gretchen Whitmer
Who’s she?
Whitmer cruised to a moment time period as governor of Michigan in 2022.
Is she working?
No.
Why would she wish to run?
It’s somewhat early to grasp, however her reelection crusade desirous about abortion rights.
Who needs her to run?
Whitmer would take a look at numerous packing containers for Democrats. She’s a contemporary face, she’s a girl, and she or he’s proved she will be able to win within the higher Midwest towards a MAGA candidate.
Can she win the nomination?
Now not if she isn’t working.
Marianne Williamson
Who’s she?
When you don’t know Williamson from her in style writing on spirituality, then you definately without a doubt keep in mind her considerably woo-woo Democratic bid in 2020.
Is she working?
Sure. Williamson introduced her crusade on March 4 in D.C.
Why does she wish to run?
“It’s our activity to create a imaginative and prescient of justice and love this is so tough that it is going to override the forces of hatred and injustice and worry,” she mentioned at her crusade release. She has additionally mentioned that she needs to provide electorate a call. “The query I ask myself isn’t ‘What’s my trail to victory?’ My query is ‘What’s my trail to radical truth-telling?’ There are a few things that want to be mentioned on this nation.”
Who needs her to run?
Williamson has her fanatics, however she doesn’t have a transparent political constituency. Additionally, her crusade is ceaselessly falling section.
Can she win the nomination?
Nah.
J. B. Pritzker
Who’s he?
The governor of Illinois is each a scion of a rich circle of relatives and a “nomadic warrior.”
Is he working?
No.
Why does he wish to run?
After years of unfulfilled passion in elected administrative center, Pritzker has established himself as a muscular proponent of progressivism in a Democratic stronghold.
Who needs him to run?
Improbably for a billionaire, Pritzker has develop into a darling of the Sanders-style left, in addition to a memelord.
Can he win the nomination?
Now not now.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Who’s he?
The son of a presidential candidate, the nephew of some other, and the nephew of a president, Kennedy is an established environmental activist and likewise a continual crank.
Is he working?
Sure. He introduced his run on April 19.
Why does he wish to run?
Working for president is a circle of relatives custom—hell, he wouldn’t also be the primary Kennedy to fundamental a sitting Democrat. He’s working a crusade organized round his esoteric aggregate of left-wing pursuits (the surroundings, drug costs) and right-wing reasons (vaccine skepticism, anger about social-media “deplatforming”), however tending towards extraordinarily darkish puts.
Who needs him to run?
In spite of his odd ideals, he’s polling in double digits towards Biden—regardless that as he has gotten deeper into anti-Semitism and conspiracies, Semafor has deemed his boomlet over.
Can he win the nomination?
Now not the Democratic one.
THIRD-PARTY AND INDEPENDENT
Joe Manchin
Who’s he?
A Democratic U.S. senator and previous governor of West Virginia, he used to be the pivotal centrist vote for the primary two years of Joe Biden’s time period. I’ve described him as “a middle-of-the-road man with excellent electoral instincts, respectable intentions, and dangerous concepts.”
Is he working?
It’s very exhausting to inform how critical he’s. He has visited Iowa, and is being courted through No Labels, the nonpartisan centrist group, to hold its banner. He’s proven no indicators of working, and would stand no probability, within the Democratic fundamental.
Why does he wish to run?
Manchin would arguably have much less energy as a third-party president than he does as a a very powerful swing senator, however he faces possibly the toughest reelection crusade of his existence in 2024, because the remaining Democrat status in a now solidly Republican state. He additionally periodically turns out in my opinion piqued at Biden and the Democrats over slights perceived or actual.
Who needs him to run?
No Labels would like to have anyone like him, a high-profile determine who’s prepared to dollar his celebration and has insurance policies that may enchantment to electorate from both celebration. It’s exhausting to consider he’d have a lot of an natural base of give a boost to, however Democrats are terrified he’d siphon off sufficient votes handy Trump or some other Republican the win in a three-way race.
Can he win?
“Make no mistake, I will be able to win any race I input,” he mentioned in April. If this is true, don’t be expecting to look him within the presidential race.
Cornel West
Who’s he?
West is a thinker, a theologian, a professor, a preacher, a gadfly, a modern activist, an actor, a spoken-word recording-artist, an writer … and we’re more than likely lacking a couple of.
Is he working?
Sure. He introduced his crusade at the Other people’s Celebration price ticket on June 5.
Why does he wish to run?
“In those bleak occasions, I’ve determined to run for reality and justice, which takes the type of working for president of america,” he mentioned in his announcement video. West is a fierce leftist who has described Trump as a “neo-fascist” and Biden as a “milquetoast neoliberal.”
Who needs him to run?
West used to be a high-profile backer of Bernie Sanders, and it’s simple to consider him successful over a few of Sanders’s fervent fanatics. The Other people’s Celebration is somewhat new and unproven, and doesn’t have a lot of a base of its personal.
Can he win?
Let’s listen from Brother West: “Do we’ve what it takes? We will see,” he mentioned. “However a few of us are going to head down preventing, cross down swinging, with genre and a grin.” Seems like a no, however it will have to be a full of life, entertaining crusade.
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